By Rob Ficiur

Hypothetical story:
Bob and Dan were talking.  Bob whispered “If I paid you a million dollars would you help me steal from your employer?”
Dan hemmed and hawed for a moment and then replied “Well…if it is for a million dollars, I guess I would.”
“Great!” Bob exclaimed.  “Here is a dollar…let’s get started!”
“Wait!” Dan replied tossing the dollar back at Bob.  “What do you take me for…a crook?”
“We have already established that,” Bob grinned, “Now we are just haggling over the price.”
In our world where politicians sometimes don’t keep all their campaign promises (and perhaps…dare we say lie?), In a world where athletes flaunt the laws of the land and get off with no punishment… In a world where the commandment Thou Shalt Not Lie is interpreted as “You probably shouldn’t lie, unless you can get away with it…” In this world it is refreshing to find a high level athlete putting his honor above his pay cheque.
This past week PGA Golfer Brian Davis was in a playoff round at the Verizon Heritage tournament.  It was the golfer’s chance to win his first ever PGA tournament.  However, Davis knew what had happened when he took his shot…but did anyone else notice?  If Brian Davis kept quiet, maybe no one would catch him and he could still win.  If they did catch his infraction, Davis could plead innocent.
Brian Davis decided that his honesty was worth $400,000 to him and he reported his foul.  He had he ticked a loose reed during his backswing Sunday on the first playoff hole, calling a two-stroke penalty on himself.  Officials hadn’t noticed the incident and only after slow motion replays were viewed did anyone see that indeed Davis had broke rule 13.4 about moving a loose impediment.
With the automatic two stroke penalty, Davis conceded the playoff round to a surprised Jim Furyk.  The latter golfer went home with just over $1 million for winning the tournament.  Second place Davis got about $600,000 less because he was honest.
Fans on the TSN website were overwhelmingly impressed with Davis’ honor bound respect for the game of golf.  Comparisons were made between Davis’ level of integrity and Tiger Woods’ lack of integrity in honoring his marital vows.
An interesting fan post suggested that it wouldn’t be long before some sponsor comes along offering Davis a lucrative or (or at least semi lucrative) sponsorship deal.
Davis would have got away without telling anyone about his infraction of rule 13.4.  Why would someone give up a chance at his first ever tour win (and a $400,000 more in cash?  To some (many) people being able to look yourself in the mirror in the morning knowing your have live with integrity is more important than money.
It has been my privilege to know many compulsively honest to the core people.  One fellow thought nothing of going back to the store and giving them back the extra change that the clerk accidently gave him.  The clerk looked at him like he was an idiot for bringing back money.  One lady returned cash she had found to the police station.  No one would have ever known she had found it … except her and that was enough.
Brian Davis is not the only honest athlete out there.  The media (and media watchers) find scandals about steroids (or not) cheater (or not) more entertaining than stories of honesty and integrity.  In fact we have become a bit suspicious of people who try to promote themselves as Honest Athlete.  Before the tournament, if Brian Davis had held a news conference explaining how he was full of honesty and integrity…we would have assumed the more he (or anyone) bragged about how honest they were, the more we would wonder what were they up to?
Brian Davis did not talk about honesty and integrity, he showed it by his actions, when no one else knew except for him…he did what he had to do no matter what the monetary cost was the cost lying / cheating (even if only he knew it) was too high to pay.  These types of stories should / but won’t get more publicity…

By Rob Ficiur

This article is being written April 14, before the playoffs began.  One hundred and ninety-eight years ago today the Titanic hit an iceberg… today Bow Island got enough snow to make many ice bergs.  Sometimes history repeats itself and sometimes we learn from it.
The following statistics from the last 21 years will predict with mathematical certainty who will win the 2010 Stanley Cup.  (The statistics used in this article are based the playoffs from 1989-2009). (The strike shortened 1995 season was not included in the final point analysis)  When I used these same stats to predict the 2009 Stanley Cup champion, History and the Numbers predicted that the New Jersey Devils would win the Stanley Cup last year.  As with most sports predictions I (sorry the numbers) were wrong and New Jersey was eliminated in Round 1.
1.  President’s Trophy winner.  The team that finished first overall in league standings has won six Stanley Cups in the last 20 years.  First overall has won more Stanley Cups than any spot in overall standings.  Oddly second overall has won two; thirde overall has won once and fourth overall has won four Stanley Cup titles.  Last year’s Pittsburgh Penguins were eighth overall, the lowest ranking team to win the Stanley Cup.  (The second lowest ranked team to win a Stanley Cup was the seventh place 1991 Pittsburgh Penguins.  This year Washington finished first overall: One vote Washington.
An interesting trivia fact is that 15 of the 20 Stanley Cups were won by teams who ranked in the top five in total points.  In the 19 full seasons since 1989 14 had over 100 points.  (The 2009 Penguins won the Cup after accumulating 99 regular season points)
2.  The average number of points of the Stanley Cup champion is 105.1.  The team with the most points to win it all was the 1989 Flames with 117 points.  The lowest team to win was the 1992 Pittsburgh Penguins with 87 points.  This year the three teams closest to 105 points are Phoenix (107) Vancouver (103) and New Jersey (103).  Half a vote for each of those teams.
3.  Goals Against Average.  We have been brainwashed to believe that defence wins championships.  In the last 20 years the team with the best goals against average has won three championships.  Teams ranking third and seventh overall in goals against average have also won three Stanley Cups.  The worst ranked defensive team to win the Stanley Cup was the 18th overall Carolina Hurricanes and the 1991 Pittsburgh Penguins.  The average ranking of the Stanley Cup champs in goals against average is 7.2.  The team with the seventh best goals against average this year is the Detroit Red Wings.  One vote for them.
(Trivia note: The Calgary Flames, out of the playoffs finished sixth best in goals against… giving them a vote would have been a real long shot)
4.  Goals For.  The Penguins who won back to back titles in 1991 and 1992 were second and first in offence in those championship years.  (They were also 18th and 20th in defence those years).  Offence can win a Stanley Cup.  Ironically only one team that finished first overall in goals scored and has won the Stanley Cup was the ’92 Penguins.    However, six teams that finished second in overall goals claimed the championship.  The average Stanley Cup champion ranked 4.8 in goals during the regular season.  So which team ranks fifth this year in goal scoring… One vote for the Pittsburgh Penguins.
Historical Stats suggest that the following seven teams could win the Stanley Cup race:
Washington, Detroit, Pittsburgh (all 1 vote)   Phoenix, Vancouver, New Jersey (all 1⁄2 a vote for most goals)
History provides us the tie break breaking criteria.   
5.  How did the team do the previous playoffs? Of the last 20 Stanley Cup winners – eight of them won playoff rounds the year before.  Of these eight teams who went from zero to champs three missed the playoffs and five lost in the first round of the previous season.  (FYI: Four champs won one round; five champs won two rounds and only two Stanley Cup winners Pittsburgh (1991 and 1992) and Detroit (1997 and 1998) won back to back championships).
On average the team that won the Stanley Cup won 1.3 playoff rounds the year before.  In other words, the average Stanley Cup champ was eliminated in round two the previous year.
Our seven finalists did the following in the 2008 playoffs:
Phoenix missed the playoffs.  Pittsburgh won the Stanley Cup over Detroit.  New Jersey was eliminated in round 1.  Washington and Vancouver were both eliminated in round 2.    
Therefore according the 20 year trend the Washington Capital, the top team in the league with 121points, will win their first ever Stanley Cup in 2010 by defeating the Vancouver Canucks.

By Rob Ficiur

1.  Why will the Calgary Flames, of the Western Conference,  with 90 points will miss the NHL playoffs when they would be sixth in the Eastern Conference?   With two games to go they are six points  ahead of the ninth place New York Rangers (which means they’d be easily in the playoffs)   
At the outset it looks unfair that the Flames, Blues and Ducks will miss the playoffs with better record than the eighth place Eastern team.  Before we start a fan revolt, every year there is at least one ninth place team that would have made the playoffs if they were in the other conference.  In 2009 the ninth place Florida Panthers with 93 points would have been fifth in the West.   In 2008 the ninth place Carolina Hurricanes had 92 points in the East while the eighth place Nashville made the playoffs with  91 points.  In 2007 Colorado’s 95 points was three ahead of eighth place New York Islanders who made the playoffs.  Finally in 2006, the Canucks 92 points would have tied them for eighth in the  East with Tampa.
No matter what playoff system a league has, there will always be a team out of the playoffs that is better than a playoff team in the other conference.  The Canadian Football League finally dealt with this issue by allowing for a cross over if the fourth place team in the West has a better record than the third place team in the East.
There are two reasons that the NHL should not change its current format.  Except for the 2006 Edmonton Oilers, no eighth place team has made it to the Stanley Cup finals since the lockout.  Generally an eighth place team is lucky to win one round.  (However, the Oilers of 2006 do give hope to all lower placed teams).  Second, teams play to the level of their competition.  The Flames knew they had to pass Colorado to make the playoffs and over the last 10 games the Avalanche held off the surging Flames by putting together a 3-5-2 record the last 10 games.  While that is a dismal stat, the Flames 4-5-1 record over the last 10 games shows that they aren’t a contending team either.
The worst part of the current NHL schedule is that the Washington Capitals will finish first overall in the weak South East Division.  The highly talented Capitals get to play the other  24 of their 82 games against their weak division partners, all of whom will miss the playoffs this year.  The  Capitals have an easier schedule than any team in the league.  (The same used to be said of the Detroit Red Wings when their central division foes were non playoff teams)
2.  Why does the CFL allow one man, David Braley, to own two of its eight CFL franchises?  The simple answer is that no one else wants to buy the Toronto Argonauts.  However, the possibility of one team helping the other with a generous trade over shadows the scenario.  At one time NFL owners could not own a franchise in any other sport. 
If nothing else this situation looks like a conflict of interest.  However, it has happened before.
In 1944 the owner of the Chicago Black Hawks died.  In time the estate was bought by the owner of the Detroit Red Wings.  For the next dozen years the Red Wings benefitted from some good trades with the Hawks; and the Chicago team made the playoffs only twice in that six team league.
The longer the CFL lets one man own two teams, the more unprofessional the league appears.  However, I don’t want to buy the Argonauts - do you?
3. Should I boycott the 2010 Toronto Blue Jays?  My answer all winter and spring training was Yes!!  They are rebuilding again… ho hum.  I accidentally caught the end of the Jays’ third game of the season.  The Jays were down going into the ninth inning… ho hum again.  In 2009 the Jays only won three games when they were losing going into the ninth.  In Game #3, Vernon Wells became the first Blue Jay ever to hit a home run in each of the first three games.  His bomb tied the game.  A couple of hits later the Jays were up 3-1 and defeated the home town Texas Rangers.  In Game #4, the Jays spoiled the Baltimore Orioles home opener by staging their second ninth inning comeback of the season, winning 7-6.   How can I boycott this team when they are currently first in the AL East with a 3-1 record?  Could this be the year the no-name Jays make the playoffs?  Why do I let a one week winning streak give me hope for what will probably be another .500 season?  I guess I am loyal (or dumb) fan.
Next week:  With the NHL regular season over – the statistics of the last 20 Stanley Cup winners will be added, subtracted, multiplied, square rooted and whatever else – to give you the inside track of which team will win the 2010 Stanley Cup.  (If you doubt the stats – remember that some obscure formula I came up with predicted Canada would win the Gold Medal in Olympic Hockey…the numbers don’t lie.)

By Rob Ficiur