By Rob Ficiur

This article is being written April 14, before the playoffs began.  One hundred and ninety-eight years ago today the Titanic hit an iceberg… today Bow Island got enough snow to make many ice bergs.  Sometimes history repeats itself and sometimes we learn from it.
The following statistics from the last 21 years will predict with mathematical certainty who will win the 2010 Stanley Cup.  (The statistics used in this article are based the playoffs from 1989-2009). (The strike shortened 1995 season was not included in the final point analysis)  When I used these same stats to predict the 2009 Stanley Cup champion, History and the Numbers predicted that the New Jersey Devils would win the Stanley Cup last year.  As with most sports predictions I (sorry the numbers) were wrong and New Jersey was eliminated in Round 1.
1.  President’s Trophy winner.  The team that finished first overall in league standings has won six Stanley Cups in the last 20 years.  First overall has won more Stanley Cups than any spot in overall standings.  Oddly second overall has won two; thirde overall has won once and fourth overall has won four Stanley Cup titles.  Last year’s Pittsburgh Penguins were eighth overall, the lowest ranking team to win the Stanley Cup.  (The second lowest ranked team to win a Stanley Cup was the seventh place 1991 Pittsburgh Penguins.  This year Washington finished first overall: One vote Washington.
An interesting trivia fact is that 15 of the 20 Stanley Cups were won by teams who ranked in the top five in total points.  In the 19 full seasons since 1989 14 had over 100 points.  (The 2009 Penguins won the Cup after accumulating 99 regular season points)
2.  The average number of points of the Stanley Cup champion is 105.1.  The team with the most points to win it all was the 1989 Flames with 117 points.  The lowest team to win was the 1992 Pittsburgh Penguins with 87 points.  This year the three teams closest to 105 points are Phoenix (107) Vancouver (103) and New Jersey (103).  Half a vote for each of those teams.
3.  Goals Against Average.  We have been brainwashed to believe that defence wins championships.  In the last 20 years the team with the best goals against average has won three championships.  Teams ranking third and seventh overall in goals against average have also won three Stanley Cups.  The worst ranked defensive team to win the Stanley Cup was the 18th overall Carolina Hurricanes and the 1991 Pittsburgh Penguins.  The average ranking of the Stanley Cup champs in goals against average is 7.2.  The team with the seventh best goals against average this year is the Detroit Red Wings.  One vote for them.
(Trivia note: The Calgary Flames, out of the playoffs finished sixth best in goals against… giving them a vote would have been a real long shot)
4.  Goals For.  The Penguins who won back to back titles in 1991 and 1992 were second and first in offence in those championship years.  (They were also 18th and 20th in defence those years).  Offence can win a Stanley Cup.  Ironically only one team that finished first overall in goals scored and has won the Stanley Cup was the ’92 Penguins.    However, six teams that finished second in overall goals claimed the championship.  The average Stanley Cup champion ranked 4.8 in goals during the regular season.  So which team ranks fifth this year in goal scoring… One vote for the Pittsburgh Penguins.
Historical Stats suggest that the following seven teams could win the Stanley Cup race:
Washington, Detroit, Pittsburgh (all 1 vote)   Phoenix, Vancouver, New Jersey (all 1⁄2 a vote for most goals)
History provides us the tie break breaking criteria.   
5.  How did the team do the previous playoffs? Of the last 20 Stanley Cup winners – eight of them won playoff rounds the year before.  Of these eight teams who went from zero to champs three missed the playoffs and five lost in the first round of the previous season.  (FYI: Four champs won one round; five champs won two rounds and only two Stanley Cup winners Pittsburgh (1991 and 1992) and Detroit (1997 and 1998) won back to back championships).
On average the team that won the Stanley Cup won 1.3 playoff rounds the year before.  In other words, the average Stanley Cup champ was eliminated in round two the previous year.
Our seven finalists did the following in the 2008 playoffs:
Phoenix missed the playoffs.  Pittsburgh won the Stanley Cup over Detroit.  New Jersey was eliminated in round 1.  Washington and Vancouver were both eliminated in round 2.    
Therefore according the 20 year trend the Washington Capital, the top team in the league with 121points, will win their first ever Stanley Cup in 2010 by defeating the Vancouver Canucks.