By Rob Ficiur

For the last two seasons I have predicted, reminded and complained that many NHL teams burn out their goalies during the regular season; which leads to early playoff losses.
Over the last five seasons, the goalie who won the Stanley Cup averaged 48 regular season games and 2,642 minutes.   The goalie who lost in the Stanley Cup final averaged 44 games and 2,539 minutes of regular season play.   A net minder playing about 2,600 minutes would rank 23rd in minutes played across the league.
This season, eight NHL goalies appeared in 69 games or more.  Of those eight goalies, only one is playing in round two of the playoffs.  Evgeni Nabokov, of the San Jose Sharks played in 71 regular season games.   In round one of the playoffs he played against Colorado’s  Craig Anderson who played 4,235 minutes third in the NHL; so one of them had to make it to round two.  In five of the eight first round series a top 10 minutes played goalie lost to a goalie who played fewer minutes.
Two of the NHL leading goaltenders, Miikka Kiprusoff and Henrik Lundqvist (ranked fourth and fifth in minutes played) missed the playoffs.  The old way of thinking was that solid goalie would first get you into the post season and then take you deep into the playoffs.   However, the numbers of the last five (and this year number six) years shows that playing a goalie for 4,000 minutes and 70 games does not work.  In the last 10 seasons, only three of the 20 goalies to reach the NHL finals has played more than 4,000 minutes in a season.  All three of the over-worked 4,000 club goalies were Martin Brodeur in 2000, 2001 and 2003.
Why can’t / don’t elite goalies take their teams to the Stanley Cup finals?  There are three answers so easy that no General Manager seems to have caught on; (since we have eight goalies with over 4,000 minutes this year).  First (and most obvious to me) is that when you play a goalie for 70 games and 4,000 minutes, they are physically and mentally tired by the time the playoffs come around.  The numbers of the last 10 years don’t lie…only Martin Brodeur, in his younger years, could play virtually every game and still be hot for the playoffs.   Coaches are prone to play their number one goalie too much because the league is so competitive.  As teams vie for playoff positions in the final month of the season, every game seems so critical, that playing the back up goalie seems too dangerous.  The goalies themselves are prone to over estimate how much they can play.  Just because they want to play, doesn’t mean they are mentally or physically as sharp as you need them to be.
A second reason for playing the number one goalie is a lack of confidence in the back up goalie.  When a back up only gets to play once in every 10 games, it is hard for him to be sharp; when he isn’t sharp the team doesn’t have confidence in him so the cycle of over playing the number one goalie continues.  Without a number two goalie to carry 30 games a season, a team will burn out their top goalie just in time for a playoff flop.
A third factor is that injuries can spell  the end of a team’s playoff run without a back up goalie.  If the team has relied only on their elite goalie, they will continue to play him even when he should rest.  If they are forced to play their number two goalie, the players lack confidence (they won’t say so…but they can’t help but feel less comfortable with an unfamiliar face in the net).
The margin of error in a playoff series is very fine…A goal here and a save here can make the difference.  In the first eight series this year;  two series went seven games and five series went six games.    In other words seven of the eight series could have been won by either team… goalies need to be at the top of their game, when injuries or bad luck hit the team.
The four playoff series in round two rank the following goalies in minutes played (San Jose sixth vs Detroit 11th)  (Chicago 34th  vs.  Vancouver ninth )   (Phildelphia 30th vs. Boston 28th)  Pittsburgh 10th vs. Montreal 26th).  Half of the teams in the second round of the playoffs have gone through some kind of goaltending controversy through the season.  In the end, they come to the playoffs with a goalie who has emerged at the end of the season with a hot hand…ready to win another upset round.
In round two of the playoffs there tend to be fewer upsets…but when teams are so evenly matched, the hot goaltending of a new up and comer might be enough to beat out an overworked elite goalie… in the next two weeks we will see which goalies lead their team to victory and on to round three.