|
By Rob Ficiur
NHL Free Agent Frenzy: Calgary Media Responds with Emotion not Numbers
Canada Day is celebrated by many by watching the NHL’s Free Agent Frenzy. A team’s course of action will depend on whether management believes they contending for the Stanley Cup or rebuilding for the future.
The Calgary Flames drew the more negative attention than any NHL team for the signing of Olli Jokinen (31) and Alex Tanguay (30).
The signing of Jokinen was mocked by the two “unbiased” Calgary newspapers. The Calgary Sun had two articles entitled: Crazy? and Final Nail in the Coffin. The Calgary Herald’s two articles entitled: You Must be Jokinen (Joking) and Captain Confidence. The TV media alike were baffled why the Flames would sign Oli Jokinen who they had traded away in February to the New York Rangers.
The 2010-2011 season will be a make or break year for GM Daryl Sutter and the Flames organization. Since the magical run to the Stanley Cup final in 2004, the Flames have lost in the first round of the playoffs four of the next five years. In 2010, the Flames didn’t lose in the first round because they missed the playoffs. With the veteran core soon past their prime, (Jerome Iginla is 32 and Mikha Kiprasauf will be 33) the Flames must win soon, or do as the Oilers and begin to rebuild through a youth program.
The knock against last year’s Flames was goal scoring. The team acquired Tanguay one of the best passers in the league; and Jokinen a four time 30 goal scorer. The belief among “experts” is that Jokinen is a bad deal for the team because he didn’t produce while he was with the Flames last year.
The numbers show something different. On July 1, six free agent forwards were signed for about $3 million per season. While each signing is a risk, the best predictor of a player’s future productivity is what they did in the past.
The following chart compares how many dollars each player will make next season, compared to the number of points they produced last year.
Saku Koivu (age 35) $2.5 million Last Year: 19 goals and 52 points. Value: 20.8 points for every million dollars of salary.
Ray Whitney (age 38) $3.0 million. Last year: 21 goals and 58 points. Value: 19.3 points for every million dollars of salary
Matt Cullen (age 33) $3.5 million. Last year: 16 goals and 38 points. Value: 13.7 points for every million dollars in salary.
Manny Moholtra (age 30) $2.75 million. Last year: 14 goals and 33 points. Value: 12 points for every million dollars in salary.
Colby Armstrong (age 27). $3 million. Last year: 15 goals and 29 points. Value: 9.6 points for every million dollars in salary.
Olli Jokinen (age 31) $3 million Last year: 15 goals and 50 points. Value: 16.6 points for every million in salary.
Looking at the six forwards signed on Canada Day, if I was looking for offense, Jokinen would be my choice for three reasons:
First, on a point per dollar basis, Only 38 year old Whitney and 35 year old Koivu averaged more points per dollar last year. A 31 year old forward has more upside than a 35 or 38 year old.
Second, Jokinen and the Flames both know what they are getting. Olli didn’t play as well as he wanted in Calgary last season. The team knew how they used him and what they could do differently this time. With all that history behind them, Olli wanted Calgary and Calgary wanted him.
Third, the Flames might use Olli differently this year. After the free agent signings, Jerome Iginla said that looking back the Flames might have given Olli the wrong role. Both Olli and Jerome are shooters not passers; and therefore their line did not connect as hoped. Knowing that; and knowing that the team acquired Alex Tanguay, the person Jerome said has been the best passer he worked with his entire career, the Flame captain was optimistic that using Olli as a shooter and Alex as a passer could revitalize the Flames offense.
The negative response by the Calgary media has lowered expectations so much, that any team success will come as a surprise. The NHL is always full of surprises; this year the Flyers with 88 points went to the Stanley Cup final. The Calgary Flames, had 90 points two more than the runner up Flyers.
|